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Rugby World
Cup 2007
Written by Desmond Organ - 18 September 2007 |
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The biggest challenge
for the journalist during the World Cup is to find a unique way to
inspire readers amidst reams of predictions and statistical
analyses. For my part I always like to write about the average fans
and the things that people attending the event are bound to remember
and this is more often than not something to do with friendships and
experiences off the field of play. This year I am unfortunately not
in the position to being the inside story to the reader and will
have to be content with joining the ranks of those that over analyse
to predict the outcome of individual matches and the ultimate winner
of the World Cup.
Waiting until after the first game has been played is a good way to
avoid the pre tournament hype and analysis and what a year to do it,
for who would have realistically predicted an Argentine victory in
the opening game against France. An ex Wallaby summed it up
perfectly a couple of days before the game when he said that France
had not developed a consistent selection or winning habit in the
last year whereas Argentina had completed a pre tournament camp for
the first time and on the strength of that were going to win the
game. A bold prediction which on the face of what transpired was
absolutely spot on. Here’s hoping that his prediction for South
Africa versus Samoa is also on the money and I for one will be
listening to him a lot more during the course of the tournament.
One of the benefits of television is that for days before the event
starts there are a multitude of programmes that bring back to life
World Cups of the past and through this you really can see what it
takes to win a world cup and what it takes to lose one as well. For
me it is a combination of five key elements; which are a class
flyhalf, outstanding defence, the ability to win one game you should
really have lost, the ability to deal with pressure and most
predictably the referee.
A class flyhalf has also been in the winning team at the World Cup;
in 1987 it was Grant Fox, in 91 it was Michael Lynagh, in 95 Joel
Stransky, in 99 Stephen Larkham and in 2003 Jonny Wilkinson. On the
basis of this New Zealand must start as favourites for in Dan Carter
they have a match winner with previous World Cup experience. It
might be his first as the starting flyhalf but that was exactly the
position that Larkham found himself in 1999. What is interesting is
that flyhalves that were rightly regarded as the best in the world
in a winning team have not been able to repeat the feat. Lynagh and
Larkham are the examples that spring to mind and on the strength of
this Jonny Wilkinson will arguably not repeat the feats of 2003.
This also means that South Africa have a huge challenge ahead of
them for in Butch James and Andre Pretorious they have class players
but they are not the best in the World. Perhaps the presence of Ruan
Pienaar will be the class act that they require and many have
predicted that he will be a world class flyhalf in the future.
Larkham was not at his best in 1999, better was still to come from
him.
Despite what many critics will say, defence wins World Cups and
whilst this may not have been the case in 1987 when the All Blacks
were way ahead of all the others it has been the case since then. In
1991 it was the Australian defence that won the game against England
and who can forget the efforts of 95 against a mighty All Black team
with one of the greatest players of all time. In 1999 Australia held
South Africa in a titanic battle and the All Black defence was what
let them down against France in the other semi final. 2003 was all
about form and yet there are few that will argue with the fact that
England had past their peak. The opening game of 2007 has proved
that defence will be crucial at this World Cup. From a defensive
perspective it is the Southern Hemisphere teams that are ahead of
the rest at the moment and only Ireland appear to be approaching the
form of the big three from the Southern Hemisphere. Australia has
the best defence at present and if there pack holds up they will be
difficult to beat. South Africa has continued to employ the rush
defence bit that is what Australia, Ireland and the All Blacks are
also doing. The ability to scramble and maintain the defensive line
is crucial and may well be the difference at the end of the day.
The ability to win one game that you really should have lost is also
key to a World Cup, Australia against Ireland in 91, South Africa
against France in 95, Australia against South Africa in 99 and
England against Samoa in 2003. New Zealand have not won since 87
because they have not won a game they should have lost, they lost
the game. France has lost the opening match of the World Cup and for
my money it is almost impossible for them to come back from this
defeat. Ireland will beat Argentina and I believe that France will
beat Ireland and that will make it very interesting indeed.
Everything is pointing to success for the All Blacks but will they
be able to handle the pressure and the knowledge that every team
that plays them will be thinking that this is the game that we won
and we actually should have lost, the All Blacks need to win in a
hard fought game against Scotland, if they hammer the Scots it will
come back to haunt them at a later stage of the tournament. South
Africa and England will be thinking much the same thing when they
clash in a week or so and that match will be a closely contested
affair.
The ability to deal with pressure is perhaps the greatest challenge
for the team carrying the favourites tag. You only have to talk to
an All Black supporter to get a feeling for this, I personally
believe that the All Blacks deal with pressure; they are however the
victims of their own success in that every team that has the
opportunity to compete with them does exactly that. They face the
prospect of Australia, South Africa and Ireland playing with
intensity that they will be hard pressed to repeat on consecutive
occasions. Australia, South Africa and Ireland will not face the
same pressure when one of the top teams plays them, it is always
harder for the All Blacks and this year will be no different. The
French have already folded once and who knows they may well fold
again and could face the prospect of not advancing from their group.
It could come down to point’s difference and I have a feeling
Argentina will be the victims.
Jake White has pointed to defence and the referee as the elements
that are most critical to wining the World Cup, I have to agree with
him and Mr Bevan, Watson and now Spreadbury have me thinking that
Jake is one the money. France should have won in the lake that was
Kings Park in 1995 and yet it appears that Derick Bevan was the
differentiator. Francois Pienaar says he got it right and the French
will tell you they scored. The Aussies were nailed by Watson in 2003
and perhaps rightly so, Spreadbury had opened 2007 with one of the
most controversial performances of all time.
I for one look forward to writing through the duration of the event
and hoping that from the outset I am able to bring my readers
entertainment and hopefully I will have been on the money when I
read this piece in a couple of months time. Enjoy what is one of the
greatest sporting events in the world. |
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